The economic structure of Saudi Arabia is unbalanced due to its over-reliance on oil and lack of diversification. Saudi Arabia would end up reaching the peak of its oil production and would experience an unavoidable decline around the 2030s. Around percent of their state revenue comes from oil sales, as they spend their wealth on the construction of an unnecessary city ‘Neom’.
Due to the high unemployment particularly among the minority Shia population, there is a prospect of militancy which corresponds with Saudi Arabia’s controversial use of cheap labor of foreign workers from south Asia who are reportedly mistreated and work under harsh conditions.
Another concern is the regional vulnerabilities, with a land border with Iran as a nearby neighbor, which is considered by some to be a contender for provincial power if Saudi Arabia collapses. Saudi Arabia has also failed to defeat the Houthi rebels even though they have bought $350 billion dollars worth of arms over a 10-year period, so how would they differ if a country like Iran decides to compete for regional supremacy?
Fundamentally all these complications are something that could inevitably lead to Saudi Arabia’s collapse. The 2030s could be a tough period for Saudi Arabia due to the economic complications and potential tension with Iran and the minority Shia population that could raise arms.
